Local Taxes & Household Budgets
2021 State of the Economy // Tax Burden & Peer Regions // Impact of New, Local Taxes // Why This Matters
This report produced by the Portland Business Alliance, 我们将进一步研究新的地方税收对家庭预算的影响, with analysis provided by ECONorthwest.
As we wrap up a year of economic challenges, 我们想仔细看看这些新税收对波特兰地区家庭的累积影响. 我们还想了解波特兰家庭与其他地区相比所承受的税收负担. The increase of tax incidence to households, coupled with the freefall in housing construction, have set our region on a path of increasing unaffordability.
WHY THIS MATTERS
值得注意的是，最近通过的地方措施的目标总体上都是值得称赞的. 事实上，千亿体育登录几乎支持了其中的每一项. However, 我们地区生活成本的惊人增长可能与税收增加有关, coupled with the inability to produce housing at levels necessary to meet rising population. As the data points below demonstrate, 波特兰日益加重的税收负担已经变成了累退税, due in large part to our inability to tax consumption, and reliance on property tax. In this report, 我们密切关注报税家庭以及2018年个人收入为50美元的家庭,000, $75,000, $150,000, and $300,000, 我们地区的家庭收入中位数是78美元,439.
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在我们城市的家庭预算已经因为房租上涨而吃紧的时候, costs of housing and unemployment, 重要的是要注意新税收的额外考虑对普通家庭的影响.
TAX BURDEN & PEER REGIONS
And as you can see by the chart below, even without a consumption-based tax, 所有收入者的家庭税金负担大幅增加, and is greater than all our peer regions at every income bracket.
IMPACT OF NEW, LOCAL TAXES
自2018年以来，波特兰对家庭和企业实施了八项新税收措施.
为了更好地理解这些新税收对家庭预算的累积影响, the teams at ECONorthwest estimated the incidence of each new tax.
分析的税收包括两项财产税征收(地铁住宅债券), passed in 2018 and the Portland Parks Levy, passed in 2020); taxes associated with the statewide Student Success Act of 2019 (personal income tax reduction and new corporate activities tax); the Portland Clean Energy Surcharge (PCES), passed in 2018; increases in the Portland business license tax (BLT) and the Multnomah business income tax (BIT); taxes associated with the Metro Homeless Services ballot measure passed in 2020 (business and personal income taxes); and the Preschool For All personal income tax, also passed in 2020.
而其中一些税收部分适用于波特兰以外的居民, 该分析捕获了对波特兰市家庭的影响. Specifically assessing the impact of the identified taxes, assuming they were fully implemented during 2018, 2018年个人收入加税50美元的家庭,000, $75,000, $150,000, and $300,000, with the median household income for our region being $78,439.
由此得出的估计是作为考虑最近通过的税收的净影响的出发点. That is, 说明最近增税的幅度和不同收入水平的一般情况. (这一分析并没有试图充分描述分配的影响或量化所有潜在的可预见的税收动态影响.)
NOTABLE TAXES IN PEER REGIONS
SEATTLE:
Payroll tax on high salaries (2021); Long-term care payroll tax (2025)
SALT LAKE CITY:
Property tax increase of 7.88% (2020)
AUSTIN:
4% permanent increase in property taxes for Project Connect (2020)
NASHVILLE:
34% increase in property taxes for police and schools (2020)
INDIANAPOLIS:
Gradual decrease in CIT through 2022
DATA ANALYSIS/SOURCES:
Data and analysis provided by ECONorthwest.
The teams at ECONorthwest relied heavily on a study by the Government of the District of Columbia (the “D.C. study”) 量化物业税的潜在发生率，并了解上述家庭所承担的基准税负. 在适用的情况下，他们依赖于最近对每种税收产生收入潜力的估计.
对于财产税，他们依赖于每项措施实施的税率增加. 为了估计财产税措施的发生率，他们使用了D.C. 研究并分配一个比例的发生率，以增加财产税相对于基线率. 与波特兰州立大学(PSU)的一项类似的研究对评估中值房屋价值的家庭征税负担的估计相比，得出的估计值似乎相对较大. 因此，为了更好地配合PSU的研究，他们将他们的估计降低了大约30%.
为了估计SSA税收的发生率，他们依赖于俄勒冈州立法税收办公室(LRO) 2019年对SSA动态影响的分析. LRO分析为选定的可支配收入范围内的家庭提供了实际可支配家庭收入的净效应. They relied on a 2016 LRO analysis of IP 28, a proposed statewide gross receipts tax, to estimate the potential incidence of the PCES. 该分析显示的家庭收入效应与SSA分析中描述的类似, above. 我们使用税收收入作为国家(IP 28)和城市(PCES)的个人收入份额来衡量这些影响。. PCES限制了在波特兰经营的大型企业的附加费, as a result, the LRO analysis of IP 28, which had a broader base, 使我们对pce的分析可能比本文档中描述的其他税种更具有投机性.
我们使用一种常见的方法来估计波特兰营业执照税(BLT)增加的影响。, the Multnomah County Business Income Tax (BIT), and the new Metro Homeless Services business tax. 我们假设家庭将承担增加的税收负担的25%, 与国家有关营业税负担的文献和LRO对出口企业税收份额的估计一致(我们不考虑该市企业主增加的税收负担). 然后，我们按照模范家庭在所有工资和薪金收入中所占的估计份额来分配这一负担.